Maya Memsahib
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The much awaited U.P election results are out. Let us examine how the principal players have fared.
Winners:
1) Mayawati: There is little doubt that Mayawati is the biggest winner of the U.P elections. Her achievement is nothing less than spectacular; in a state in which no party has won a majority in the last 15 years, her social engineering, helped by the shoddy governance provided by Mulayam Singh has paid rich dividends. She more than any other leader–even more than the Nehru-Gandhis’ defines her party. This is her victory. Even if she is able to provide even a semblance of good governance, she can mount a serious challenge for the post of Prime Minister. While 2009 may be too early for her, age is on her side.
Her one limitation is her dictatorial tendencies and inability to tolerate any other power center in the party. For her to be a serious contender for power in the center, she has to expand her support base in states like Bihar and M.P. That means B.S.P cannot be a one woman party and she will have to learn to share power. Can she do it? The jury is still out on that but Mayawati is an extremely fast learner.
2) U.P voter- For the average UPite, this is the best possible election result. Not only has he got rid of the venal Mulayam, but finally there will be a government which can focus on governance rather than ensuring its own survival. More importantly, it demolishes the notion, much peddled by Mandal messiahs of a rainbow OBC-Dalit combination. In fact, the post Mandal political realignment has come full circle. New social alliances are being mounted, primarily against the most dominant castes post-Mandal: Upper OBC’s like Yadavas.
Mayawati’s victory wasn’t facilitated only by a Dalit-Brahmin combination–rather, she managed to get votes from almost every section of the society. An interesting Parallel from the Bihar elections can be seen here. The NDA victory in Bihar was marked by the marginalization of Ram Vilas Paswan. Similarly in U.P. one caste parties like Apna Dal have been completely wiped out, so much so that Kurmi icon Beni prasad Varma forfeited his deposit! Similar has been the fate of the scores of Muslim parties fielded by the likes of Bukhari. This is indeed heartwarming news. While caste still plays an important rule, at least exclusivistic tendiences are beingcurbed.
Neutral:
Mulayam Singh Yadav- Despite the strong anti-incumbency, Mulayam Singh Yadav has still managed to win around a 100 seats. This is credible. On one hand it signals that the Muslim-Yadav combination remains potent, on the other hand it also shows its limits; it can only win elections in case of a fractured verdict. In fact, herein lies the real danger for Mulayam Singh. Muslims have no affinity with Mulayam except for his Maulana Mulayam image. If Mayawati is able to prevent riots, she can win the Muslim votes and reduce Mulayam to merely a Yadav leader.
Losers:
B.J.P-For a party dreaming of a national revival, this verdict has come as a rude shock. Not only has B.J.P lost seats, its vote share has come down to 18%, if it loses even a couple of % points more, it will be unable to cross the threshold where vote share translates into seats and will be reduced to the level of Congress. The party needs to reinvent itself, and look beyond the Kalyan Singh-Lalji Tandon generation. Its nostalgic harking back to the Hinduvata agenda is not going to yield it any dividends nor will amateurish attempts at social re-engineering. It is increasingly reflecting the Congress party in U.P:only leaders, no workers.
Rahul Gandhi- And by implication, India’s most famous parivar. No, I am not saying this because Congress has won only 21 seats–less than what it won in 2002. I am saying this because of its inability to see the writing on the wall. Gandhi acolytes like Salman Khursheed still seem to be clinging to the belief that Rahul Gandhi can actually revive the Congress in U.P.
In their blindness is our hope. Courtesy Rahul Gandhi and Congress’s famed sycophancy, we might actually see the end of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty within our lifetimes. Oh! What a glorious day would that be!
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