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Maybe yes but…

Wise heads tell us that the next BJP leader must be elected and not nominated. While the mechanism is not clear, it would necessarily involve  party workers and sympathizers voting in a closed primary.

Prima facie, it is hard to argue against this approach. Rather than imposing a leader by the unelected–and unelectable!– apparatchiks  of Nagpur, it would undoubtedly be more useful and democratic if the party leader is the choice of grass root supporters. The lack of inner party democracy in Indian politics and the culture of High Command quite rightly exasperates most Indians.

Nevertheless, from an electoral view point, it is unlikely that a BJP leader elected by primaries would be viable. For a party to win elections in India, it necessarily has to embrace a Big Tent. It is simply impossible for a party which upholds an exclusivist agenda to thrive in the long term—particularly in case of national politics.

As BJP loses influence in national politics, it’s core base of supporters has winnowed down to those who are attracted mainly by Hindutva: Contrary to what it’s supporters may claim, Hindutva is generally perceived to a be religious centered ideology which excludes important minority groups—most noticeably Muslims. As the reception of the likes of Varun Gandhi showed, the base is more attracted by sword wielding Hindu Warriors than serious policy oriented candidates. Left to them, it is not inconceivable that they would elect a leader who would be wildly attractive to the core group of supporters but would put off everyone else—virtually guaranteeing political wilderness.

Critics may point out that repeated political defeats would convince even the most ideologically inclined to support more moderate and electable candidates. Perhaps, but it is unlikely. Those who are fascinated by ideological rigidity consider it a manner of honor to lose elections. In any case, the search for the niravana of ideological purity is an endless journey in which every electoral defeat is explained as a consequence of making compromises and heroes are discarded as heretics at the slightest transgression. As BJP becomes more marginalized, the core supporters would see even less need for accommodation. It is indeed a vicious cycle.

BJP’s problems are much more fundamental than lack of true inner party democracy. It needs to reinvent it self as a modern political party  and stop harking back to its glory days for inspiration. What may be the solution is not quite clear except the fond hope that threat of permanent marginalization may force at least the sane ones to chart a fresh path.

Till that happens, India is looking at single party rule—primaries or no primaries.