Retributions  

Prakash Karat must be a very sore man these days. After Prime minister Manmohan Singh allegedly betrayed his trust virtually  ”forcing” him to withdraw support, he threatened to make it ”politically impossible” for the government to pursue the nuclear deal. But it isn’t he who has mounted the most serious challenge to the government. In the day of 24/7 news, Karat is yesterday’s headline–reduced to playing the second fiddle to a gatecrasher: Mayawati. She is the new darling of Indian media–hailed as virtually the prime minister in waiting.

It is a testimony perhaps to both instant punditry which is the hallmark of our times and to how devalued the office of prime minister has become: Two parties with an effective strength of eight in the current Lok Sabha declare her as as next prime minister and that is enough. Karat, who has been pontificating against the government for the last four years is forgotten. Mayawati is the new diva.

But does Mayawati has a reason to smile? Is she India’s next ruler? No. For five reasons.

First, let’s do the numbers here. In the best case scenario, Maywati will win 50 seats in UP. Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP can add another 15-20 to the tally. If Left decides to support her–and that is not guaranteed–she can expect the support of another 40 parliamentarians for a total of 100-110. Add to that floaters like Chautala’s IND and her total support base might creep up to 125-130 still leaving her well short of the majority mark. Congress and BJP may agree to prop her up but these coalitions are notoriously unstable. Remember Deva Gowda and Gujral? Successful Coalitions require the largest constituent to cross the hundred mark.  It is hard to see Mayawati doing so in the conceivable future.

Second, BSP is a single state party. Granted, she can play the spoiler in states like Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat but on her own she would be hard pressed to win even a single seat in these states. Also, the dominant parties in these states–BJP and Congress–are her real enemies. Her existing allies add no real value to her party and vice-versa. To emerge as a serious prime ministerial candidate, Mayawati would have to grow beyond being the joker in the pack. That may not be as easy as many media commentators believe. Much of Mayawati’s aura owes its origin to her stunning victory in the last assembly elections in UP. It may be news for journalists sitting in New Delhi but BSP has been a major player in UP for the last fifteen years. That owes as much to her charisma as to the peculiarities of UP politics. Despite her best efforts, she has failed to win significant support in neighboring states like Bihar.

Third, her smiling visage may be filling television screen but Mayawati is at heart a tyrant–in that respect, she is not very different from Sonia Gandhi. But Congress was a pan-national organization much before it became the private vehicle of the Nehru-Gandhi family. Mayawati’s distrust of alternative power centers and her demand for absolute, unquestioning allegiance precludes the growth of mass leaders in her party. Witness how every leader of consequence has been forced out of BSP in the last few years. In UP it may not matter as Mayawati enjoys absolute support among the Dalits. Mayawati will have to learn to share power with other mass leaders–and not just backroom operators like Satish Chandra Mishra–if her party has to continue on its growth part.Mayawati has shown no signs of doing so.

Fourth, Mayawati is unconcerned with specifics of governance. She is ready to grant anything which her supporters may demand–a Harit pradesh here; a Telangana there. When she actually holds the reigns of power, she may yet realize the difference between promising hand outs and actually delivering on them. She has made so many promises that she is bound to come up short. More experienced parties like Congress and BJP realize this–they refuse to concede the most outrageous demands because it may harm their long term interests.

Fifth, multi-party coalitions usually select the most powerless leader–he is unlikely to threaten the status quo. Mayawati’s vaulting ambitions and her ability to ruffle feathers are surely to raise some serious questions in minds of her supporters–when they actually think about handing power to her. Promises made in the heat of a trust vote are about as truth worthy as Ajit Singh’s next proclamation of allegiance.

A caveat would be in order here: Mayawati may yet become India’s next prime minister if all she wishes to do is a Gowda or Gujaral. Considering India’s divided polity virtually anyone can hope to occupy the highest office.  But she has much to do if she wishes to see herself leading a stable government with at least a degree of stability and permanence.