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The General has out-lived his welcome.

After weeks of speculation, Pakistan’s commando general has finally decided to impose martial law. The constitution has been suspended, the Chief Justice and other dissenting justices have been fired, and General Musharraf is once again the absolute ruler of Pakistan.

It is quite clear that general Musharraf’s hand was forced by the recalcitrant Supreme Court and especially its belligerent chief justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhary. As the Dawn editorial points out,

We state emphatically what has forced Gen Musharraf to declare emergency are the doubts about the outcome of the Supreme Court’s judgment on his right to contest the presidential election. No one is going to accept what he is going to tell us, neither the people of Pakistan nor the aid-givers.

Mushaaraf’s speech defending the proclaiming the imposition of emergency supplies enough evidence of his irritation with the higher judiciary. Not only he accuses judicial activism of frightening the agents of the state, he also accuses the Supreme Court of releasing terrorists, promoting madarsas, and creating an environment of uncertainty. If the general is to be believed, every problem confronting Pakistan is due to judicial interference. Musharraf’s unique selling point in the West, the Islamic extremists merit only a couple of minutes, the judiciary on the other hand, is covered in extreme detail with Mushrraf coming across a petulant and whining child. Unsurprisingly, in his English speech, Musharraf makes no mention of judiciary confining his arguments to terrorism and promises to ”restore” democracy.

As Nazam Sethi writes,

Indeed, out of 11 effective clauses in the PE, eight refer to the negative role played by the judges and the judiciary in undermining the war against terrorism, the executive functioning of government and the economy. As such, the Supreme Court under Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry is held critically responsible for harming the national interest and exacerbating the crisis of the state and deadlock of the political system.

What next? Nitin has already detailed what may happen in the short term. But can the general Musharraf pull it off in the long term especially since his nominal Prime Minister has made it clear that elections are at least a year away.

Unfortunately for Musharraf while he loves absolute power (Army chief as well as the president), he likes to come across as a true ”democrat”. This isn’t only pandering to his masters in the West for when has the State Department really cared for democracy in Pakistan? It is the image Musharraf has constructed for himself and now he is trapped in it. Unlike previous dictators in Pakistan’s chequered history, he has largely tolerated press freedom. Columnists have attacked him without fearing a midnight knock on their doors. It would be extremely hard for Musharraf to deny the freedoms the civil society has come to expect.

Or take the entire Justice Chaudhary episode. After the outpouring of popular support emboldened the Supreme Court, it reinstated the chief justice. This was a direct challenge to the authority of Musharraf, and yet, he meekly acquiesced. Unsurprisingly, the Court went hammer and tongs against him and would have canceled his election as the president if not for the imposition of emergency. Allowing Justice Chauadhary to return was a huge tactical error on Musharraf’s part. His desire to be known as Pakistan’s Kemal Ataturk got the better of his tactical sense.

Despite the arrests Musharraf’s police has made, it is certain that protests will break out soon. However, unlike the Chinese or the Burmese Junta, he doesn’t have the option of using large-scale force to crush the protesters. Because they have tasted success before, his opponents–especially the civil society–can be expected to come out in large numbers. Unless Musharraf is prepared to repudiate his own agenda and expose himself to to the charge of being a malevolent and brutal dictator, there is little he can do. He either has to sacrifice his legacy or his future. For someone who sees the Pakistani state as an extension of himself (as sepoy puts it) this is huge challenge.

The other great unknown is the Army. This is perhaps the most serious challenge the authority of Army has received since its drubbing in the 1971 war. Not only is it under attack from the Islamic militants but the civil society seems to be firmly against more Army interference in functioning of the Pakistani state. How long before the Army cuts it losses and decides to dump Musharraf? After all, the institution of the Army is much more important than individuals.

Interesting times lie ahead.

p.s. Interestingly enough, the Provisional Constitutional Order takes care to mention,

Notwithstanding anything contained in the Proclamation of the 3rd day of November, 2007, or this Order or any other law for the time being in force, all provisions of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan embodying Islamic injunctions including Articles 2, 2A, 31, 2O3A, 227 to 231 and 260 (3) (a) and (b) shall continue to be in force

Even at the moment of his greatest crisis, Musharraf didn’t forget to pander to the religious right. So much for enlightened moderation!