Retributions  

The Significance of the Supreme Court judgment

In a strong indictment of General Musharraf’s regime, Pakistan’s Supreme Court has ruled in favor of the suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar M Chaudhry. Not only that, in a rather open display at its annoyance the court also quashed the presidential reference against the Chief Justice declaring it as illegal.

For regular Pakistan watchers, this is indeed surprising. The Supreme Court in Pakistan, using the doctrine of necessity has routinely legitimized dictators and has shown a marked disinclination to stand up against military rules. The General could hardly be blamed for thinking that the Court would rubber stamp his coup againt the chief justice. So what explains this sudden about turn?

One explanation could be that the Court has been emboldened by the all-around support Justice Chaudhry received from the civil society. His rallies and public functions have been well-attended and he has emerged as a rallying point for all those opposed to Musharraf’s regime. However, there is still no no credibile political force against Musharraf. While Nawaz Sharif remains exiled, Benazir Bhutto has kept her channels of communications open with Musharraf’s regime and it is quite likely that she would make peace with the general. In absence of a viable political alternative, it is questionable if Musharraf can be removed by democratic means.

On the other hand, it is equally possible that Musharraf has made his peace with the Chief Justice. After the Lal Masjid assault, Pakistan has been hit by a wave of bombings and suicide attacks including ones targeting Chinese workers. Musharraf’s peace pact with Taliban has allowed they to regroup and emerge as a potent force. Bush administration also seems less enamored with the General’s regime, and US senators have been asking rather uncomfortable questions about the level of monetary and military support Pakistan receives. Hence, instead of battling the jihadis and the civil society at the same time, it would make sense for the general to make peace with the lesser evil.

But the explanation which is perhaps most plausible is that the judges of the Supreme Court have realized that Musharraf’s time is up. In Pakistani politics, wretched are those who can’t read the winds correctly. Since the judges are highly unlikely to go against the wishes of the Army, has the General lost the confidence of his Army commanders? As has been previously noted, in Pakistan’s politics, it is not generals which are indispensable but the Army.

So has the Army moved in to cut its losses?