The real question is “Will people vote on big-picture issues when an alternative is available that provides benefits exclusive to their group alone?” – any guesses

2. When people secure rewards not because of effort but because they are members of a group, he will work to strengthen that group. He will work to strengthen the system that legitimizes the definition of his group.

By its nature the members of this group are “anti the-whole”. If they work and vote on “the-big-picture” issues, their benefit will be disproportionately lesser than if they worked to strength their “group” alone. This is human nature, you cannot blame anyone for this behavior.

Read the excellent book “The Rise of Decline of Nations” by Mancur Olsen.

That might be true but the fact remains that the NDA has not helped its own cause by constant infighting. BJP seems to be afflicted with a death wish.

Prasanna, the second point you made. My personal take is that the reforms have been so limited that very few people have benfited directly. No doubt, the spin off has been huge in other sectors, but are people prepared to recognise that?

Excellent analysis though i have some concerns

The entire premise of your posting ,on Middle Class’ current political predilections ,is based on the findings of ‘inspired exercises’ called opinin polls and that too commissioned by the Media Spinmasters of UPA government.

The economic interests of Hindustan Times (Vir Sanghvi),NDTV (Prannoy),CNN-IBN (Rajdeep) are best protected under leftist-congress regime. So they have launched combined effort to bolster the image of the inefficient government by resorting to such dubious surveys

However it might be true that powerful section (that can be construed as belonging to the India Upper Middle class ) worship the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty.They belong to the generation that failed India remarkably.They choose to live in their own cocoon ,chant Gandhi-Nehru mantra to protect their interest,keep reliving nostalgic moments of the so-called glorious days of Gandhi-Nehru rule.Many powerful journalist/civil servants/media personalities/academicians /retired public sector /babalog(who make it big purely on the strength of being rich/well-connected enable them to get superior education and monopolise all opportunities) will invariably belong to this category.Now they are unable to reconcile to their dimishing influence

My personal experience is that new generation of Indians ,who make it big purely on their own ability/merit , are typically hostile to Congress Party though many of them might have abiding respect for Dr.Manmohan .However it’s a tragedy that they often do not exercise their franchise

My only hope is that if middle class in India gets demographically younger ,this elite will be rendered inconsequential and we can see truly empowered middle class emerge -which is not blinkered and narrow in their outlook as pointed out by you

Two points. First, the number of people who have directedly benefited from the reforms process is very limited. Now, this distinction is important, it had a lot of dripping down effect. For example, salaries of government officials have increased, new job opportunities have been created in new areas: cellular business employs thousands of employees. However, till a larger number of people say, hey, we want reforms, it would be extremely naive to expect our political class to respond. Now, there is some pressure on the political class and that is why no one is able to go back on reforms, infact CMs like Nitish Kumar have shown a refreshing willingness to invite investment despite all the socialist baggage they carry. However, still the obsession is with results and not the means. You might ask, what is wrong with it? Well in the long term, this will not deliver considering the huge number of poor India carries.

Second, about the moral authority. Yes and No. No government in India has survived after the middle class has withdrawn its moral support from it, even though numerically the middle class might not be that significant. However, I still feel the middle class is not confident enough to invest in the long term. For example, there is huge resistance every time there is talk of increasing Delhi University tutions which are still capped at what students used to pay in 1967. Unless, the middle class realizes that the reforms is in its own benefits even with short term pain, things will not change. Of course, the poor have to realize that too, but the onus is on the middle class.

Yes, I adovcate rationality in public policy making, but I have also come to recognise the limits of that. The pull of irrational and largely unsustainable promises is so strong, that it is extremely difficult for anyone to practise sustainable economics and yet remain politically relevant. Thus, I think we need some one to sell reforms. Otherwise, India will continue on its path of 7-8% growth, which is not bad but considering the burden of her poor is simply not good enough.

Chandra,

I agree, but incremental change has its limits. I recognise that the whole framework of debate has to change. Kindly note, even European economies are free ones though they might be welfare states. So, while our intellectuals will borrow the state take care of everyone argument from them, they will not see what allows them to be so.

As I said above, unfortunately rationality has its limits in public discourse. Look at Chandra Babu Naidu, nothing has changed for farmers since he was outed but mere lip service for farmers has elevated Congress to a higher pedestal. Of course, the fact that the real power is in hands of those who will only take soft decisions does not help matters at all.

Look at how Manmohan (the gutless person in charge now who apparently gets it, economically speaking) is tackled at every turn. I guess, my point is, instead of waiting for a Mahatma, incremental changes have to be fought for by every one of us to eventually change the debate and economic landscape.

An additional point with regards to middle class fascination with UPA – the role of messenger, the media. I remember how NDA was portrayed for its economic reforms and what did and did not do to fight terror (POTA and such like) – utterly negative. Now, every article starts with the, “Good Doctor…” And there is complete unaccountability from UPA with regards to terror. Even normally sane people are, probably, happy that ISI terror attacks Mumbai train with Gujaraties in it and a mosque. It seemingly provides a moral justification framework for stupid questions (and analysis) like did Hindus plant those bombs in a mosque instead of asking UPA what are you doing to tackle terrorism beyound dismantling POTA. Middle class is hugely disserviced by the media.

For someone advocating a more rational approach to public policy.. your belief in messiahs is incomprehensible. According to you, the middle class normally carries the burden of change – it is expected to bring in new ideas aspirations. I agree with that. So why do you think the middle class isn’t able to do that? How can a messiah better communicate to the hoi polloi that..reforms are good when a whole middle class cannot? Are you admitting that the middle class in India doesn’t carry the moral authority?

Thanks. Yes, I recognise that the middle class is not homogenous. But middle class is not just about money, it is also about moral authority, ideas and aspirations. In USA, higher taxes on rich are opposed by a large section of middle class. Why? Because one day they see themselves as joining those ranks! I am not saying it happens for everyone, but the desire and belief is there. In India, if you increases taxes on rich to 75%, half of the middle class will be rooting for it. They don\\\’t see themselves getting there. They do not want to be part of the system, they do not see themselves as benefiting from the system on a long term basis, they think they should extract the maximum benefit out of the system and then make a run for it.

Rational Fool,

See the comment above. Also, I am not sure what exact % of population is OBC, hell no one knows, not even the government. But you must see, the reservations in higher education will affect a very small population, positively or negatively. That they will cause damage to India\\\’s polity and future is undisputable, but in terms of votes and supports, the number is not significant.

What should be more surprising and of concern, is that in sum total of policies, the UPA government is going back to the past, following the same old policies which have been shown to fail miserably before. Yet, the middle class does not seem to get it.

Chandra,

Thanks for the link.

Nitin\\\’s call for a free market Mahatma is not to be taken literally. No one is asking that Gandhi comes back. Infact, I have huge disagreements with his teachings. But at its most basic level, Gnadhi was one of the greatest marketeer the world has seen. He actually sold the idea that it is ok to get beaten up without resisting! Beat that! He understood the soul of India, the concerns of her people far better than we can do. Yet, despite all the morality, he offered something tangible at the end of the road:freedom and that was the secret of his success. He offered a path and he virtually guaranteed the ultimate prize.

In India, we have failed to sell the reforms. Despite all the facts and figures and past stories, ultimately it is what the man in the street feels is what matters. And someone has to sell the message in a language he understands. Sonia Gandhi understands this, in any other country, her renunciation would be butt of jokes, doing backseat driving while taking no responsiblity. Hell, she is just keeping the seat warm for her kids. But try telling that to folks, half of them would turn back and tell you don\\\’t get it.

India needs someone who can dirty his hands and talk to people in the matrix they understand, as Nitin says that can only be someone great. Maybe a few of them. A Narayan Murthy here, Sharad Joshi there.