Retributions  

But who really won and lost?

The UPA government has won the trust vote in parliament by a comfortable margin. But who are the winners and losers of India’s biggest political fight since this government came to power?

The Winners:

Manmohan Singh: it is hard to visualize Dr Singh returning as India’s next prime minister. His prime interest was in pushing  the nuclear deal forward. By saving the government, he has managed to just that. Manomhan Singh is unlikely to be transformed into a decisive leader merely because of one victory, but, perhaps, he will push the economic agenda a little forward now.

NDA: If the government had fallen at this juncture, the assembly elections in the crucial battleground states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh would have been held along with the Lok Sabha elections. That would have helped the party by diverting anti-incumbency towards the central government. Yet, BJP gains on four fronts: a) The government did not fall on an issue on which the core BJP support base agrees with the government. b) Nothing is impossible in politics–especially Indian politics–but the gulf between the Congress and the Left has widened. Amar Singh, the government’s new point man, launched a frontal assault on Prakash and Brinda Karat. The finance minister P. Chidambaram claimed that ‘’some quarters” don’t want India to grow as fast as China. c) The cash-for-votes scandal gives the party an opportunity to discredit the government. If properly handled, it is an issue which would resonate at least in the urban areas. Fourth, it gives BJP to time to solve the UP conundrum. With BSP one side and Congress/SP alliance on the other, BJP would have been decimated in UP.

Amar Singh:

The Congress-SP alliance is his brain child. Unfortunately, in Indian politics, only the ends matter. In that situation, men like Amar Singh would always prosper. Expect more wheeling-dealing in the future.

Fifty fifty:

Congress party: It saved the government at a time when it is no shape to face the electorate.  Nothing may change even next year but at least it has some breathing time now.  It has also sewn up some new allies, most noticeably, SP. However, the support comes with a price tag–sometimes literally–and the party will spend the rest of its term struggling with meeting multiple demands of its new allies.

Losers:

Mayawati:

She made a mistake she has almost never made before: She played her cards too soon. She has been a past master at choosing her allies at the very last minute. With a CBI sword hanging over her head and a vindictive Amar Singh urging the government on, she can be in for some serious legal trouble.

The Left:

For reasons which should be blindingly obvious to most. Perhaps, the mass leaders in party would finally think about revolting against the unelectable apparatchiks. Wishful thinking? Perhaps.